Introduction:
Have you ever made a decision that seemed like a good idea at the time, only to realize later that it had unintended consequences? Or have you ever set a goal for yourself, only to feel disappointed when it took longer to achieve than you anticipated? If so, you’re not alone. As humans, we tend to have a bias towards underestimating the long-term impact of our actions and overestimating how quickly things will happen. This is known as the “projection bias.”
What is the projection bias?
The projection bias refers to our tendency to focus on the short-term consequences of our actions, rather than considering the long-term effects. This can lead us to make poor decisions, as we may not fully consider the long-term impacts of our actions. It can also lead to disappointment, as we may expect things to happen more quickly than they actually do.
Examples of the projection bias:
- Making a decision based on short-term gain without considering the long-term consequences: For example, taking a high-paying job that requires a lot of travel may seem like a good idea in the short-term, but it may not be sustainable in the long-term if it causes you to miss out on important personal or family events.
- Underestimating the time it takes to reach a goal: For example, if you set a goal to run a marathon in six months, you might underestimate the amount of training and preparation required to achieve it. This can lead to disappointment if you’re not able to reach your goal as quickly as you had hoped.
How to overcome the projection bias:
To overcome the projection bias, it’s important to take a long-term perspective when making decisions. This means considering not just the immediate consequences of our actions, but also the potential long-term effects.
- Consider the long-term benefits: When making a decision, try to think about the long-term benefits it will bring, rather than just the immediate pleasure or reward. For example, if you’re considering starting a new exercise routine, think about the long-term benefits of regular exercise, rather than just the immediate pleasure of completing a workout.
- Set realistic goals: When setting a goal for yourself, be realistic about the amount of time and effort it will take to achieve it. This can help you avoid disappointment and stay motivated as you work towards your goal.
Conclusion
By being aware of the projection bias and taking a long-term perspective when making decisions, we can avoid making poor decisions based on short-term thinking and set ourselves up for long-term success.
For a deeper understanding of how biases can impact our decision-making, we recommend checking out “The Art of Thinking Clearly” by Rolf Dobelli. In this book, Dobelli examines various cognitive biases and provides practical strategies for overcoming them and making clearer, more rational decisions.
